Verified facts
Businesses expected CPI inflation of 3.3% a year ahead in the three-month average to October, compared with 3.1% previously, according to the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel. The October survey received 1,945 responses, collected from 2 to 16 October.
Expected own-price growth was 3.8% and expected wage growth was 3.4%. Own-price measures cover businesses across the economy, not only consumer-facing firms. Survey expectations are neither observed CPI nor the MPC's official forecast.
Apolifina analysis
The survey offers a way to examine how businesses think about prices and pay before those expectations become decisions. For an investor assessing a company's margins, the useful questions concern its ability to pass on costs and how its wage bill develops.
Those questions cannot be answered by treating a survey average as a forecast for every company. Nor does a change in expectations establish the next interest-rate decision. Sector exposures and company disclosures remain necessary checks.
Uncertainty and risk
Responses were gathered before the Budget of 28 October. Do not attribute the result to that announcement. These are weighted survey estimates and three-month averages; businesses' intentions may change. No personal investment or interest-rate recommendation is provided.
Primary sources
Source released 30 October 2026. Published 30 October 2026.
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